Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
